Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

After opening in positive territory for the 10^th straight gap up for the S&P and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) going for its 10th consecutive green day, its longest winning streak since November 2021, stocks seeing little movement early as investors brace for tomorrow’s FOMC rate policy meeting, where a 25-bps rate cut is “baked-in”. Early strength in tech and ORCL (again) while defensives and Staples continue to be source of funds and are victims of tax loss. Gold rose to a record-high on Tuesday, helped by a softer dollar ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the day (decision tomorrow), where the monetary authority is widely expected to cut interest rates. The Euro climbs to 4-year high against U.S. dollar at $1.184 while the dollar index (DXY) slides -0.5% to 96.80. Oracle (ORCL) shares jumped after President Trump said that the U.S. and China have a deal that would keep the short-video app TikTok operating in the United States. The market strength truly remarkable after a more than +30% jump off April lows, up 10 straight days in Nasdaq 100, heading into FOMC meeting. At this point a wait and see game as investors positioned into expected easing and dovish commentary.

• Import prices for August rose +0.3% vs. consensus (-0.1%) and vs July +0.2%; August export prices +0.3% vs. consensus unchanged and vs July +0.3%; Aug year-over-year import prices unchanged, export prices +3.4%; Aug non-petroleum import prices +0.2%, year-over-year +0.9%.
• Industrial Production for August rose +0.1% vs. consensus -0.1% and vs July -0.4% while capacity utilization rate 77.4% was in-line with consensus 77.4% and the prior month.
• July Business Inventories +0.2% in-line with consensus +0.2% and vs June +0.2%; July inventory/sales ratio 1.37 months’ worth vs June 1.38 months; July business sales +1.0% vs June +0.7% (prev +0.5%).

• In Software: ORCL shares jumped as the US and China reached a preliminary TikTok deal during trade talks in Madrid. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the two countries have agreed on a framework for a deal, multiple media outlets reported. MSFT raises quarterly dividend by 9.6% to $0.91 from $0.83; the new annualized dividend yield is 0.71% vs prior annualized dividend yield of 0.64%. Cybersecurity firm Netskope is now aiming for a valuation of up to $7.26B in its U.S. IPO by selling 47.8M shares priced between $17-$19 (above prior $15-$17). WDAY entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Sana, an AI company building the next generation of enterprise knowledge tools for about $1.1B.
• In Metals & Mining: in precious metals, Another day, another all-time high for gold prices topping $3,430 an ounce amid a weaker dollar and an expected easing rate cut cycle by the Fed starting tomorrow. In Steel producers: STLD guided Q3 EPS $2.60-$2.64 vs. est. $2.57; said profitability from steel operations is expected to be stronger than sequential Q2 results, driven by strong shipments and metal spread expansion as scrap raw material costs are expected to decline more than average realized steel pricing.
• In Autos: RACE was initiated coverage at Berenberg with a Buy rating and EUR 484 price target as views the company as a compelling long-term investment which offers strong brand heritage, robust pricing power and durable returns on capital. NIO was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS with a price target of $8.50, up from $6.20 saying the company’s newest products could further attract customers after the $1B equity offerings bolstered visibility on Nio’s healthy operations. Ford Motor (F) plans to cut a further 1,000 jobs in Germany as it seeks deeper cost savings to offset weak demand for electric vehicles in Europe.

• BE +7%; price tgt raised to $85 from $44 at Morgan Stanley saying ORCL’s massive upside bookings surprise opens up new visions for Bloom’s potential scale. This comes just a month after Bloom announced in July an agreement to power Oracle AI data centers with its fuel cells.
• FERG +6%; reported Q4 revenue, profit beat as EPS of $3.48 topped estimates of $2.88 and sales of $8.5B above consensus $8.41B saying revs from non-residential markets, which accounts for about half of co’s U.S. revenue, grew 15% y/y; sees mid-single digit rev growth for 2025 and raises adj op margin view.
• HSY +2%; was double upgraded from Sell to Buy at Goldman Sachs and raised tgt to $222 from $170 saying they now see a compelling risk/reward set-up for the stock, with cost pressures largely known and reflected in expectations, plus the company’s market share trends have improved.
• JMIA +22%; was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital and raise PT to $15 from $6.50 after hosted JMIA’s CEO and CFO for investor meetings and come away incrementally positive, particularly on the sustained supply benefits the company is getting from easing FX pressures.
• ORCL +2%; as the US and China reached a preliminary TikTok deal during trade talks in Madrid. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the two countries have agreed on a framework for a deal, multiple media outlets reported.
• STLD +4%; guided Q3 EPS $2.60-$2.64 vs. est. $2.57; said profitability from steel operations is expected to be stronger than sequential Q2 results, driven by strong shipments and metal spread expansion as scrap raw material costs are expected to decline more than average realized steel pricing.
• WBTN +25%; after DIS said it plans to acquire a 2% equity interest in the online comics company

• OSCR -5%; after launches proposed convertible senior subordinated notes offering to scale long-term growth and consumer and employer adoption of the individual market.
• PLAY -17%; shares tumbled after earnings results as Q2 EBITDA of $130M fell $12M below consensus owing to softer comps and ~$9M expenses not expected to repeat in FY2H25 while Q2 comp sales fell -3.0% vs -2.2% consensus, but improved 530bps sequentially.
• RKLB -11%; after announcing planned $750 mln stock sale
• RL -2%; shares fell after reiterating annual forecasts, projects revenue to increase at a compound annual growth rate of mid-single digits and operating margin to expand about 100 to 150 basis points over next three years ahead of its Investor Day.
• SMR -4%; after shareholder FLR files to sell 15M shares.