Mid-Morning Look

Monday, September 22, 2025

After small overnight weakness for U.S. futures, stocks quickly rebound on the open (again) as the dip was bought (again) with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high ahead of a busy week of Fed speakers. Modest weakness in Smallcap Russell 2000 initially, also falling -0.7% but also quickly rallied after hitting its first all-time highs since 2021 last week following the FOMC rate cut. All major averages are at or near record highs, gold prices jumped another 1% to fresh record highs, while Bitcoin prices pulled back along with other crypto prices after rebounding last week. There are very few signs of stock market bearishness with all S&P sectors up on the year (except for defensive Consumer Staples and Healthcare – modest losses of less then -1% YTD), while tech has surged in recent weeks with Communications (XLC +23% YTD) and Technology (XLK +20% YTD) leading on AI hype, investment and stock euphoria. Semiconductors (SOX) hitting new all-time highs again today too. The Fed comments at FOMC meeting last week were dovish, with a 25-bps cut and calls for added cuts this year, trying to reboot a softening jobs market while inflation takes a back seat (note PCE inflation data on Friday). A ton of M&A deals/news announced overnight, helping boost a handful of names today (see details below).

• In Insurance: Raymond James upgraded ORI to Outperform and downgraded EG and EVER to Outperform saying and raises Q325 EPS estimates for 12 commercial and personal lines carriers, reflecting 20%+ below-average severe convective storm activity in July and August, and no major hurricane landfalls QTD. Favorite stocks for each cohort for the remainder of 2025 and heading into 2026 include ALL, MCY, TRV, and WTW and continue to like out-of-consensus calls on CB, MMC, and PGR
• In Footwear Retail: Piper with two changes as they downgraded CROX to Neutral and cut tgt to $75 from $95 saying given strategic changes at both brands (pullback on discounting at CROCS and on performance marketing at HEYDUDE) and uncertainty around demand elasticity, demand headwinds in the US could be longer lasting and is below the Street on sales for ’26 and see risk to guidance for Q425. Piper upgraded SHOO to Overweight (tgt to $40 from $25 as views a $4+ in earnings power as realistic.

• IREN +8%; announced it has doubled its AI Cloud capacity to 23k GPUs following the procurement of an additional 12.4k GPUs and is now targeting more than $500M in AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) by Q1 2026.
• MBX +123%; after the company provided topline results from its Phase 2 clinical trial of once weekly canvuparatide for patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism.
• MTSR +60%; after being acquired by PFE in a transaction valued at $47.50 per Metsera share in cash upon closing, for an initial enterprise value of $4.9B with a CVR of up to $22.50 per share in additional payments.
• ODP +33%; to be acquired by Atlas Holdings in all-cash transaction in deal valued at about $1B as shareholders to receive $28 per share.
• PINC +8%; after announces definitive agreement to be acquired by Patient Square Capital in transaction valued at $2.6B as Premier stockholders will receive $28.25 in cash per share.
• PRO +40%; after entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thoma Bravo in an all-cash transaction valuing PROS at approximately $1.4B. Under the terms of the agreement, Pros shareholders will receive $23.25 per share in cash.
• SRPT +6%; was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital saying they appreciate the credible concerns around a potential ambulatory patient death that could compromise Elevidys’ viability but believes the stock’s current valuation skews the risk/reward to the upside.
• TEM +9%; shares rose after receives FDA 510(K) clearance for Tempus xR IVD, RNA NGS in Vitro Diagnostic Device/ XR IVD will be offered as life sciences tool to support drug development programs.
• TER +8%; after Susquehanna noted recent checks in Taiwan with key players in the AI compute supply chain indicate TER is gaining meaningful traction at TSM, particularly for GPU “wafer sort testing.”

• BYDDF -3%; shares dropped after a report that Warren Buffett’s investment firm offloaded its stake in the Chinese electric-vehicle maker according to a CNBC report on Sunday.
• KVUE -5%; as the Trump administration officials plan to link the active ingredient in Tylenol to autism Monday, the Washington Post reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.
• QUBT -16%; after saying it plans to issue nearly 26.9 million shares to several large existing shareholders, in addition to a first-time investment from a global alternative asset manager. The offering is expected to close on Sept. 24, bringing the company’s total cash position to $850 million.
• ZG -3%; on competition fears after COMP announces combination with Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS) in all-stock transaction as combined company is expected to have an enterprise value of approximately $10B (including assumption of debt).