Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

U.S. stock futures were higher overnight, looking to rebound after markets slipped on Tuesday given some modest selling pressure in the AI/tech space after weeks of surging, but markets have slipped since the open awaiting more Fed speakers, GDP data tomorrow and PCE inflation data on Friday. There were lots of individual stock news stories moving names with ACHC, CYCN, QURE rising and ACAD, HRMY falling in healthcare on data; lithium stocks surge behind LAC investment news; semiconductors mixed after MU posted beat and strong guidance, but shares little changed after surge into earnings; BABA spikes on AI news; gold prices remain near all-time highs; Bitcoin miners IREN, CIFR, RIOT rise on positive analyst comments saying demand from artificial intelligence (AI) computing provides long-term opportunities; FCX plunges after lowering forecast for Q3 copper, gold sales. All in all, stock markets remain resilient, buoyed by AI and Fed rate cuts as investors continue to ride FOMO.

Are markets complacent? Perhaps, as trade tensions, slowing growth, inflation fears and frothy valuations, none of it has stopped the torrid rally to record after record for the S&P 500 Index as Bloomberg noted the S&P 500 has gone 107 sessions without a drop of 2% or more (longest streak since July 2024). Warning signs continue to grow, when will it matter remains the question? Bloomberg reported the S&P 500’s recent record-setting run is riding on the gains of its biggest companies (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA). The version of the benchmark that gives equal weighting to each company has lagged the traditional benchmark for the last four weeks. Also, the S&P 500’s advance earlier this week pushed its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio to 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot-com bust of the early 2000s and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero.

• In Software: ADBE was downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley on decelerating digital media annual recurring revenue; said with limited confidence in timing that catalyst path, it sees cleaner near-term narratives elsewhere in Software and move to the sidelines. NOW was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $1,250 from $1,040 saying consistent execution has been overshadowed by risks related to generative artificial intelligence and federal spending concerns. ORCL filed for seven-part notes offering.
• Healthcare Facilities: PRVA announced an agreement to acquire EVH’s Accountable Care Organization (ACO) business as the total consideration is composed of $100M in upfront cash and up to $13M contingent upon the ACO’s MSSP savings for the 2025 Performance Year. ACHC shares rose after the Financial Times reported activist Engine Capital revealed a roughly 3% stake in a letter to the board, calling for Acadia to add new directors with expertise in behavioral health and capital allocation.
• In Aerospace & Defense: AIR reported F1Q26 (Aug.) EPS of $1.08 vs. the Street’s $0.98 and revenue of $740M was well above the Street’s $689M as the beat was driven primarily by Parts Supply strength, including notable improvement in its USM business. AXON was initiated at Overweight and $893 tgt at Piper based on Axon’s continued product innovation driving a larger TAM across a very sticky market that it sees going through a renaissance, including into high-growth areas like AI and drones/robotics. KBR said to pursue tax-free spin-off of its mission technology solutions (MTS) segment, which caters to military and other government agencies.

• CYCN +45%; after saying it is relaunching as a neuropsychiatric-focused firm after signing a licensing deal with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
• IAS +20%; agreed to be acquired by Private equity firm Novacap, valuing IAS at about $1.9 billion as IAS shareholders to receive $10.30 per share in cash, a 22% premium on stock’s last close.
• LAC +70%; shares surged after reports Trump officials seek equity stake in Lithium Americas as part of renegotiation of $2.26B loan for Thacker pass lithium project. The co has offered Trump administration no-cost warrants that would equate to 5%-10% of company’s common shares. LAC this morning confirmed its in discussions with the U.S. Department of Energy and GM, its JV partner in the Thacker Pass lithium project, regarding first draw on the DOE Loan.
• NOW +3%; was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $1,250 from $1,040 saying consistent execution has been overshadowed by risks related to generative artificial intelligence and federal spending concerns.
• QURE +200%; as high dose AMT-130 demonstrated statistically significant 75% disease slowing at 36 months for its primary endpoint cUHDRS compared to a propensity score-matched external control, and also demonstrated stat sig slowing of disease progression as measured by TFC, a key secondary endpoint
• SLNO +11%; rises following drug study failure by ACAD

• ADBE -3%; was downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley on decelerating digital media annual recurring revenue; said with limited confidence in timing that catalyst path, it sees cleaner near-term narratives elsewhere in Software and move to the sidelines
• BE -10%; was downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies on rich valuation saying given the limited visibility into post-2026 growth and some early signs of over-exuberance, finds that risks to the downside outweigh further upside at the current levels.
• FCX -8%; said it expects consolidated sales forecast in Q3 to be about 4% lower for copper and around 6% lower for gold than July 2025 estimates (from July forecast of consolidated sales of 1 billion pounds of copper and 350 thousand ounces of gold)
• HRMY -8%; said its experimental drug, ZYN002, did not meet the main goal in a late-stage trial testing it in patients with Fragile X syndrome; said the drug did not meet the main goal of improvement in social avoidance primarily due to a higher-than-expected placebo response rate.
• MU -1%; reported strong FQ4 results / FQ1 guidance, which exceeded expectations as results were mostly driven by strong DRAM pricing, which increased LDD%, while FQ1 GM is expected to increase to 51.5% (+580 bps). HBM revs approached $2B, growing ~30% q/q with better guidance.
• ORCL -2%; after Bloomberg reported is looking to raise $15 billion in corporate bond sales.