Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, September 25, 2025

U.S. stocks opened lower after two days of declines, led by weakness in technology shares for a 3^rd day and better economic data (GDP, jobless claims) leading to thoughts the Fed may need to ease the breaks on rate cuts as inflation edges higher, but markets have already quickly rebounded off the lows in another early buy the dip moment (S&P 30 point bounce off lows, Nasdaq 180 point bounce). There are a few notable headlines as potential catalysts for “bears” with tariff news to digest, as the Trump administration launched investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices. Also, the U.S. government is six days from its 15th partial shutdown since 1981, and both chambers are out all this week with the Senate not due to return to Washington until September 29. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds up 4bps at 4.19% after data and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields last up 5.7 bps at 3.65% following data. The dollar index (DXY) also inched up to the highest level in three weeks, as markets weighed the latest data round. Bitcoin prices tumbled early along with other riskier assets, but again paring losses. Early leaders Energy, Financials and REITs.

• Durable Goods Orders for August rose 2.9% m/m, compared with the -0.3% decrease expected and -2.8% in the prior month (revised from -2.8%). Excluding transportation, new orders gained 0.4% last month, excluding defense, new orders advanced 1.9% after July’s -2.3% (revised from -2.5%). Core capital goods orders (nondefense, excluding air): +0.6% vs. -0.1% consensus and +0.8% in July (revised from +1.1%).
• Weekly jobless claims dropped by 14K to 218K vs. 238K consensus and 232K prior (revised from 231K); the 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the prior week’s average of 240,250 (revised from 240,000); continuing claims dipped to 1.926M from 1.928M in the prior week (revised from 1.920M) and also came in lower than the 1.930M consensus.
• U.S. international trade in goods deficit narrowed to (-$85.5B) in August’s advance estimate from the revised (-$102.8B) in July and compares with the (-$94.4B) shortfall expected. Exports of goods stood at $176.1B in August, $2.3B less than July. Imports came in at $261.6B, $19.6B less than the prior month.
• Existing Home Sales for August 4.00M unit rate (consensus 3.96M), vs July 4.01M (prev 4.01M); Aug inventory of homes for sale 1.53M units, 4.6 months’ worth; U.S. Aug national median home price for existing homes $422,600, +2.0% from Aug 2024.

• In Steel sector: Nippon Steel Corp. said it will invest $300M in two plants run by the recently acquired United States Steel Corp., setting up a new recycling facility and expanding production via the introduction of new product lines in the key U.S. market. WS Q1 results were slightly above ests (adj EPS $0.77 vs est. $0.76, adj EBIT $54.9Mm vs est. $52.4Mm on revs rose 5% y/y to $872.9Mm vs est. $834.6Mm) while gross margin increased by $14.8M y/y to $115.2M, helped by higher direct spreads and higher direct volumes.
• In IT Services & Consulting: ACN said it expects US federal spending cuts on consultants to slow its growth next year after it beat expectations for revenue in Q4 – had reported Q4 adj EPS $3.03, vs. consensus $2.98 and revs $17.6B vs. est. $17.36B; reports Q4 new bookings of $21.3B and generative AI new bookings of $1.8B for the quarter and $5.9B for the year. IBM shares were active after HSBC said it’s achieved a world-first breakthrough in deploying quantum computing in financial markets. HSBC said that it used International Business Machines (IBM) most-advanced Heron quantum processor to attain a 34% improvement in predicting how likely a bond will trade at a given price

• CAPR +12%; said that during a recent meeting, the U.S. FDA agreed to offer ‘further regulatory flexibility’ if the company resubmits a marketing application for its lead asset, Deramiocel.
• GH +8%; was upgraded at Wolfe and tgt raised to $70 from $60 at Stifel following its Investor Day where the company showed data creation & portfolio improvement efforts and a financial update that signaled strength and momentum on several fronts.
• IBM +3%; after announces a partnership with HSBC Holdings for trial use of quantum computers to aid bond trading found promising results; HSBC says the new technology delivered a 34% improvement in predicting how likely a bond trade would be filled at a quoted price.
• INTC +6%; approached AAPL about an investment in the chipmaker as part of efforts to turn around a business that’s now partially owned by the U.S. government, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. https://tinyurl.com/3dj8zwah ; Separately, INTC was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Seaport Global.
• LAC +17%; extends prior day gains; after nearly doubling on Wednesday, following reports the Trump administration is pursuing a stake in the company

• CIFR -9%; said GOOGL will receive warrants to buy about 24 million shares of the company’s stock as part of Cipher’s 10-year AI hosting agreement with Fluidstack valued at about $3B; shares reversed lower after announces proposed offering of $800M of 0% convertible senior notes.
• FCX 5%; adds to yesterday’s losses after tumbling nearly -17% on Wednesday following the tragic mud rush incident at the company’s giant Grasberg Block Cave and lowered forecasts.
• FUL -3%; shares dropped after Q3 results as revs fell -2.8% y/y to $892M, vs. est. $893.9M; Q3 adj Ebitda was $171M, up 3% y/y driven principally by the net impact of pricing and raw material cost action; sees Fy25 revs to be down 2% to 3%; organic revenue for fiscal 2025 is now expected to be flat to up 1%.
• KMX -24%; after Q2 results missed; Q2 EPS $0.64 was below consensus $1.05 and revs $6.59B vs. est. $7.02B saying Q2 retail used unit sales decreased -5.4% and comparable store used unit sales decreased -6.3%; provision for loan losses in Q2 included an increase of $71.3M of lifetime losses on existing loans.
• OKLO -10%; initiate at Neutral and $117 PT at Goldman Sachs saying it is advancing its sodium-cooled fast fission nuclear reactor with a target to reach commercialization by late 2027/early 2028…but notes OKLO is pursuing an own-and-operate model in SMR…a much greater financial risks and with capital intensity.
• ORCL -3%; was initiated at Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn with $175 tgt saying the market is materially overestimating the value of the firm’s cloud revenues.
• RIG -14%; said its 125M share secondary offering priced at $3.05 (from $3.64 closing price).