Early Look

Thursday, November 6, 2025

U.S. futures are looking mixed to little changed after a strong rebound Wednesday erased most of Tuesday’s tech damage as stocks and gold jumped along with Bitcoin, while bond prices slid and yields rose. The US Government shutdown is now on day 37, still the longest in history with hopes for a resolution this weekend. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 671 points to 50,883, the Shanghai Index gained 38 points to 4,007, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 550 points to 26,485. In Europe, the German DAX is down -19 points to 24,030, while the FTSE 100 is down -25 points to 9,751. This morning the dollar (DXY) is weaker following the surprise release of Challenger job data, showing the worst October for cuts since 2003. Sterling is higher ahead of the Bank of England decision later this morning where they are expected hold. Other events today (other than another quarterly earnings barrage – see below for details), the Supreme Court decision on tariffs and Fed speakers. In stock news outside of earnings, Schwab makes a purchase of Forge (FRGE), MRVL shares rise on media report Softbank looked at them for acquisition and MSCI adds 69 companies and removes 64 from Global index review.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 225.76 points, or 0.48%, to 47,311.00
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 151.16 points, or 0.65%, to 23,499.80
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 37.46 points, or 1.54% to 2,464.79

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI ABL ABNB ACHR ARR AFRM AGO AKAM ALG ALRM ALTG AMN AMRK ARLO ASTH BBDC BHF BILL BKD BL BLNK CABO CARG CC CDXS CE CENX CERT CHRS CON CPK CPT CTMX DBX DH DIOD DKNG DNA DOCS DRH EB ED EVCM EVH EVTC EXFY EXPE EXPI FARM FG FIGS SIVN FLO FNF FNKO FOXF FROG G GDEN GEN GMED GPRO GRND GRWG GSAT HRB HUN ICUI INOD IREN KRO KRT LASR LDI LION LNT LPRO MAIN MCHP MNST MODG MP MRVI MTD NOG NRDS NTRA NUS NWSA OLED ONTO OPEN OS OUT PAHC PAR PCRX PCT PGNY PTON QXO RBA RC RUN RXT SG SGHT SKIN SMR SNDK SOUN SSP SYNA TNDM TRUP TSE TTD TTWO TXG TXRH USAR VCTR WPM WSC WYNN XPOF XYZ YELP ZD ZYME

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +1.7% vs +7.1% last week. Bulls fall to 38%, from 44%, Neutrals Rise to 25.8% from 19.1%, Bears drop to 36.3% from 36.9%.
• China has begun modest purchases of U.S. farm products after the leaders of both countries met last week, but traders still await significant soybean buys after the White House said Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons by year-end – Reuters.

• Duolingo (DUOL) Q3 adj EPS $ vs est $0.76, adj EBITDA $80Mm vs est $72.22Mm on revs $271.7Mm vs est $260.3Mm, daily active users 50.5Mm, monthly active users 135.3Mm; guides FY revs $1.028-1.032B vs est $1.02B and adj EBITDA $297-300Mm vs est $287.17Mm.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Q3 EPS $0.19 vs. est. $0.17; Q3 revs $423.6M vs. est. $413.6M; sees FY25 revenue $1.61B-$1.615B, vs. consensus $1.60B and sees FY25 same shop sales growth is now expected to be approximately 5%.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) shares fall; Q2 adj EPS $0.68 vs est $0.57 on revs $343.936Mm vs est $366.43Mm; guides FY sales $1.55-1.57B vs est $1.65B, adj EBITDA $302-306Mm vs est $347.65Mm and adj EPS $2.80-2.85 vs est $3.58
• Lyft Inc. (LYFT) Q3 EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.07; Q3 revs $1.69B vs. est. $1.7B; reports Q3 Gross Bookings rose 16% y/y to $4.8B vs. est. $4.71B; Q3 adj Ebitda $138.9M vs. est. $140M and sees Q4 adj Ebitda about $135M-$155M vs. est. $145.3M; sees Q4 gross bookings $5.01B-45.13B vs. est. $4.98B.

• EOS Energy Enterprises (EOSE) Q3 adj EBITDA ($52.7Mm) vs est ($41.49Mm) on revs $30.512Mm vs est $39.6Mm; see FY revs $150-160Mm vs est $146.51Mm.
• Talen Energy (TLN) Q3 EPS $4.25 vs. est. $3.87; Q3 revs $812M vs. est. $742.17M; sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $1.75B-$2.05B and guides FY26 adjusted free cash flow $980M-$1.18B; increased share repurchase program, with $2B remaining through 2028; Narrowing 2025 guidance and affirming 2026 guidance.

• Charles Schwab (SCHW) said it would buy Forge Global (FRGE) in a transaction valued at approximately $660 million. Under the terms of the agreement, Schwab will acquire all of Forge’s outstanding common shares for $45 per share in cash vs. Forge’s stock closed yesterday at $37.90. https://tinyurl.com/33p5c4vk
• Corpay (CPAY) Q3 adj EPS $5.70 vs est $5.64, adj EBITDA $676.7Mm vs est $644.32Mm on revs $1.172B vs est $1.162B; guides FY revs $4.505-4.525B vs est $4.453B and adj EPS $21.14-21.34 vs est $21.06.
• Fair Isaac (FICO) Q4 adj EPS $7.74 vs est $7.34 on revs $515.8Mm vs est $513.37Mm; guides FY revs $2.35B vs est $2.366B and adj EPS $38.17 vs est $38.38.
• Freshworks (FRSH) Q3 adjusted EPS $0.16 vs. est. $0.13; Q3 revs $215.1M vs. est. $208.8M; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $0.62-$0.64 vs. est. $0.58 and revs $833.1M-$836.1M vs. est. $825.68M.
• LegalZoom (LZ) Q3 EPS $0.17 vs. est. $0.19; Q3 revs $190.16M vs. est. $183.27M; Q3 Subscription revenue of $125.4M rose 13% y/y; is increasing its revenue outlook and maintaining its Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook for the full year for revs in the range of $748M-$752M, or 10% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
• MetLife Inc (MET) Q3 adj EPS $2.37 vs. est. $2.30; Q3 revs $17.361B vs. est. $18.617B; 3Q book value per share $39.52, 3Q premiums, fees, other rev $12.5B, 3Q net investment income $6.1B.
• Paycom Software (PAYC) Q3 adj EPS $1.94 vs est $1.96, adj EBITDA $194Mm vs est $191.9Mm on revs $493.3Mm vs est $493Mm; guides FY revs $2.045-2.055B vs est $2.049B.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Q3 EPS $0.61 vs est. $0.53 and revs rose 100% y/y to $1.27B vs est. $1.19B; said Q3 transaction-based revs rose 129% to $730M, primarily driven by cryptocurrencies revenue of $268M, up over 300%, options revenue of $304M, up 50%; et interest revenues increased 66% y/y to $456M; Total operating expenses increased 31% y/y to $639 million; CFO Jason Warnick announced his intention to retire next year.

• Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) and Vaxart (VXRT) announced that they have entered into an exclusive, worldwide license and collaboration agreement for Vaxart’s investigational oral COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Vaxart’s investigational oral vaccine candidate has a novel mechanism of action and delivery method relative to commercially available COVID-19 vaccines.
• Halozyme (HALO) announces proposed offering of $650M of convertible Senior notes due 2031 and $650M of convertible Senior notes due 2032.
• McKesson (MCK) Q2 adj EPS $9.86 vs. est. $9.05 and revs rose 10% y/y to $103.2B vs. est. $104.12B; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $38.35-$38.85 from $37.10-$37.90 (est. $38.34).
• Pfizer (PFE) plans to sweeten its bid for Metsera (MTSR), a person familiar with the matter told Reuters, after a judge denied its request to block rival drugmaker Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) $10 billion offer for the biotech company. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported the news of Pfizer’s impending bid.

• Albermarle (ALB) Q3 adj EPS ($0.19) vs est ($0.78), adj EBITDA $225.6Mm vs est $191Mm on sales $1.308B vs est $1.273B; says on track to Achieve positive FCF of $300-400Mm for FY.
• Hecla Mining (HL) Q3 revs $409.5M vs. est. $275,2M; adjusted EBITDA for Q3 beats analyst expectations; Silver production increased 2% over prior quarter, exceeding plan and driving guidance revision.
• Maersk (AMKBY) reported better-than-expected Q3 results but warned falling freight rates were set to cause losses in its ocean container business during the fourth quarter, sending its shares lower.
• Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) announced it is conducting a review of strategic Alternatives for its Phosphate business as part of efforts to simplify its Portfolio and focus on Core Assets.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) announces $300M convertible senior notes offering.

• AppLovin (APP) Q3 adj EBITDA $1.158B vs est $1.092B on revs $1.405B vs est $1.342B; guides Q4 revs $1.57-1.6B vs est $1.547B and adj EBITDA $1.29-1.32B vs est $1.27B.
• Arm Holdings (ARM) Q2 adj EPS $0.39 vs est. $0.33; Q2 revs $1.14B vs. est. $1.06B; guides outlook midpoint Q3 adj EPS $0.41 vs est. $0.35 and for revs midpoint $1.23B vs est. $1.11B
• Coherent Corp. (COHR) Q1 adj EPS $1.16 vs est $1.04, adj Op Inc $309Mm vs es T$285.8Mm on revs $1.581B vs est $1.534B; guides Q2 revs $1.56-1.70B vs est $1.555B and adj EPS $1.10-1.30 vs est $1.11.
• EchoStar (SATS) agrees to sell full unpaired AWS-3 spectrum license Portfolio to SpaceX. Agreement with SpaceX to sell the company’s unpaired AWS-3 licenses for approximately $2.6B in SpaceX stock valued as of Sept 2025.
• Fortinet (FTNT) Q3 EPS $0.74 vs. est $0.63; Q3 revs $1.72B vs. est. $1.7B; guides mixed Q3 with better EPS but lower revs and for the year, sees FY25 EPS $2.66-$2.70 vs. est. $2.52 and revs $6.72B-$6.78B vs. est. $6.75B.
• HubSpot (HUBS) shares fall; Q3 adj EPS $2.66 vs est $2.58, adj EBIT $161.5Mm vs est $157.1Mm on revs $809.518Mm vs est $786.9Mm; guides Q4 revs $828-830Mm vs est $824.6Mm, adj Op Inc $183-184Mm vs est $183.78Mm and adj EPS $2.97-2.99 vs est $2.97.
• IONQ Inc. (IONQ) Q3 EPS ($0.17) vs est $0.44), adj EBITDA ($48.9Mm) vs est ($58.3Mm) on revs $39.866Mm vs est $27Mm; guides FY revs $106-110Mm vs est $91.32Mm.
• Klaviyo (KVYO) Q3 adj EPS $0.18 vs. est. $0.14; Q3 revs rose 32% y/y to $310.9M vs. est. $299.3M; sees FY revs $1.215B-$1.219B vs. est. $1.2B.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) shares rise after Bloomberg reported SoftBank Group Corp. explored a potential takeover of US chipmaker Marvell Technology Inc. earlier this year, people familiar with the matter said, in what would have been the semiconductor industry’s largest-ever deal. The Japanese conglomerate’s billionaire founder, Masayoshi Son, has been studying Marvell as a possible target on and off for years, according to the people. https://tinyurl.com/2d99erst
• MKS Inc. (MKSI) Q3 adj EPS $1.93 vs est $1.85 on revs $988Mm vs est $970.5Mm; guides Q4 revs $860-940Mm vs est $955.16Mm.
• CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group A (NBIS) and Insmed (INSM) were the three largest additions to the MSCI World Index measured by full company market capitalization after MSCI adds 69 companies and removes 64 from Global index review.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Q4 adj EPS $3.00 vs est $2.88 on revs $11.27B vs es T$10.79B; guides Q1 revs $11.8-12.6B vs est $11.62B and adj EPS $3.30-3.50 vs est $3.31.
• Residio Technologies (REZI) shares fall; Q3 adj EPS $0.89 vs est $0.71 on revs $1.86B vs est $1.877B; guides Q4 revs $1.853-1.893B vs est $1.92B and adj EPS $0.42-0.52 vs est $0.77.
• Snap Inc. (SNAP) shares rise; Q3 EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. est. loss (-$0.12); Q3 revs $1.51B vs. est. $1.49B; Q3 daily active users increased 8% y/y to 477M, and monthly active users increased 7% y/y to 943M; announces stock repurchase program up to $500M; sees Q4 revenue $1.68B-$1.71B vs. consensus $1.69B.
• VIAVI (VIAV) and Calnex are partnering to offer integrated lab testbeds for Open RAN equipment, combining VIAVI’s TM500/XEdge/TeraVM with Calnex’s Paragon-neo and SNE platforms.