Early Look

Thursday, November 20, 2025

After three weeks of profit taking in the technology sector, especially in the AI related sectors (semis, data centers, power), the Bulls were back overnight as solid results from AI leader Nvidia (shares +4.7% overnight) and upbeat outlook and guidance has boosted S&P and Nasdaq futures. The results won’t erase all the concerns about AI circularity and valuations, but the revenue for the quarter and outlook has spurred buying overnight in the aforementioned sectors with big jumps in shares of CRWV, AMD NBIS, CIFR, ETN, OKLO, IREN and many others that power AI. NVDA to the rescue last night with another strong beat and guide higher as Q3 revs of $57B vs analysts’ ests of $55B and guided Q4 revs $65B plus/minus 2%, above est. $61.66B and lifted data center related names after posting data center segment revs at $51.2B, above ests of $48.62B. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,286 points to 49,823, the Shanghai Index fell -15 points to 3,931, and the Hang Seng Index was little changed at 25,835. In Europe, the German DAX is up 218 points to 23,381, while the FTSE 100 rises 55 points to 9,562. Gold prices drop -0.75%, pressured by a firm dollar and fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as investors waited for a delayed U.S. jobs report later in the day. Traders are now focused on the September jobs report, delayed due to the government shutdown, for clues on the Fed’s next move. September nonfarm payrolls have likely increased by 50,000 jobs, more than double August’s 22,000 gain. It will also be the last jobs data before the FOMC rate meeting in December with Oct/Nov numbers rolled together in a reading a week after. Markets also await earnings from retailing giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.03 points, or 0.10%, to 46,138.77
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 131.38 points, or 0.59%, to 22,564.23
• The Russell 2000 Index slipped -0.84 points, or 0.04% to 2,347.89

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for September…est. +62K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for September…est. (-8K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for September…est. 4.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings for September…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 230K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.96M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for November…est. 2.0 (prior -12.8)
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for October…est. 4.08M
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for November…(prior 15)

• Earnings After the Close: BULL CPRT ESE ESTC GAP GEOS INTU MATW NGVC POST ROST UGI VEEV

• Needham 6th Annual Needham Tech Week: 1×1 Conference 11/20-11/24 (virtual)
• Oppenheimer Internet Bus Tour, 11/20-11/21
• Truist Gaming, Lodging, Leisure, and Restaurants Summit, 11/20 in Boston, MA

• Oddity Tech Ltd (ODD) Q3 adj EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.35; Q3 adj Ebitda $29M vs. est. $27M; Q3 revs $148M vs. est. $145.4M; Q3 adj net income $25M vs. est. $21.4M.
• Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Q3 EPS $0.53 vs. $0.70 last year and revs $297.2M vs. $306.9M last year; for FY26, company expects net sales to decline low-to-mid single digits in first half and expect flat-to-low single digit growth in second half net sales; Reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 net sales outlook.
• Universal Technical Institute (UTI) Q4 EPS $0.34 vs. est. $0.26; Q4 revs $222.4M vs. est. $219.32M; surpassed our twice-raised revenue guidance range with 14% y/y growth; sees FY26 EPS $0.71-$0.80 vs. est. $0.92 and revs $905M-$915M vs. est. $901M.

• Hillenbrand (HI) Q4 adj EPS $0.83 vs. est. $0.61; Q4 revs fell -22% y/y to $652M vs. est. $594M; will not provide fiscal year 2026 guidance due to pending acquisition; said revenue and adjusted EBITDA decline primarily due to divestiture of MIME business.
• New Jersey Resources (NJR) Q4 adj EPS $0.16 vs. est. $0.19; Q4 revs $336.08M vs. est. $299.75M; sees FY26 EPS $3.03-$3.18, vs. consensus $3.12.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) announced the launch of its next Electron mission is scheduled to take place from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand – less than 48 hours after the successful launch of an earlier mission from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2 in Virginia.
• ZTO Express (ZTO) Q3 adjusted EPS RMB3.06 vs. consensus RMB2.51 and Q3 revenue RMB11.86B, vs. consensus RMB11.91B; for Q3, grew volume by 9.8% to reach 9.6 billion parcels and we delivered 2.51 billion adjusted net income which increased 5%; sees 2025 parcel volume to grow 12.3%-13.8%.

• Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), BioNTech (BNTX), GSK (GSK), Pfizer (PFE) and Sanofi (SNY): A CDC webpage now states that studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism, revising its previous stance, per the WSJ. The revised webpage suggests aluminum adjuvants could contribute to autism and argues previous CDC assurances violated the Data Quality Act.
• Nuvalent (NUVL) announces FDA Acceptance of new drug application for zidesamtinib for the treatment of TKI pre-treated patients with advanced ros1-positive NSCLC; FDA assigns PDUFA target action date of September 18, 2026.
• Regeneron (REGN) announced that the FDA has approved Eylea HD Injection 8 mg for the treatment of patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion with up to every 8-week dosing after an initial monthly dosing period.

• Data Center/Infrastructure stocks such as APLD, CRWV, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, SMCI, VRT, ETN, saw strength overnight and this morning after NVDA data center segment revs at $51.2B, above estimates of $48.62B.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Q1 adj EPS $0.93 vs. est. $0.89; Q1 revs $2.47B vs. est. $2.46B; said will acquire Chronosphere for a total consideration of $3.35B; guides Q2 adj EPS $0.93-$0.95 vs. est. $0.93 and revs $2.57B-$2.59B, vs. est. $2.58B; sees Q2 Next-Generation Security ARR of $6.11B-$6.14B or 28% y/y growth and remaining performance obligation (RPO) $15.75B-$15.85B up 21%-22% y/y; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $3.80-$3.90 from $3.75-$3.85 and ups rev guidance for year.
• Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.31) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q4 revs $60.64M vs. est. $55.3M; sees FY26 revenue $300M-$320M, vs. consensus $258.38M and FY26 adjusted EBITDA $50M-$70M.
• Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC) Q4 EPS $0.28 vs. est. $0.22; Q4 revs $177.6M vs. est. $169.84M; sees Q1 EPS $0.33 plus/minus -20% vs. est. $0.23 and revs $180M-$200M vs. est. $166.76M; said global operations and supply chain teams are preparing for increased customer demand over coming quarters.
• IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) announced an intention to collaborate on the groundwork for networked distributed quantum computing, to be realized as soon as the early 2030s.
• NetEase (NTES) Q3 2025 revenue rises 8.2% yr/yr to RMB28.4 bln (US$4.0 billion) as games and related services revenue up 11.8% yr/yr in Q3; Q3 net income was RMB8.6B, non-GAAP net income RMB9.5B; extends $5B share repurchase program by 36 months.
• Netflix (NFLX) has informed Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) management that it would continue releasing the studio’s films in theaters if its acquisition of the company succeeds, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday. Warner Bros.’ existing theatrical release contracts would be honored, the report said, citing sources familiar with the matter.
• U.S. officials are saying privately they might not levy semiconductor tariffs soon, as the Trump administration takes a more cautious approach with China – WSJ.