Early Look

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

U.S. stock futures slip overnight, while gold prices hit new all-time highs above $3,900 an ounce on day 1 of the U.S. government shutdown (its 15^th time since 1981), which began last night at midnight as Federal workers are gearing up for mass firings after the OMB told federal agencies to consider firing workers permanently, a step beyond the temporary furloughs that usually accompany a shutdown. House Speaker Mike Johnson blasted Democrats for holding out against passing a stopgap funding bill that would avoid a shutdown of the U.S. government at the end of the day. The shutdown threatens to disrupt the release of key economic data this coming Friday with the September nonfarm payrolls) and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path, though we get private payroll ADP data this morning. While shutdowns have not derailed markets historically, the current episode coincides with a critical period when stock valuations are elevated and sentiment fragile. In Asian markets, Chinese Stock Market closes at highest level since January 2022 at 3,882; the Nikkei Index declined -381 points to 44,550, and the Hang Seng Index gained 232 points to 26,855. In Europe, the FTSE 100 built on its record-breaking close in the previous session and capping off the third quarter with a gain of about 7% rising 67 points to 9,418 while in Germany, the DAX gains 88 points to 23,969. In stock news, Dow component Nike (NKE) shares are edging higher overnight after earnings results.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 81.82 points, or 0.18%, to 46,397.89
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 68.86 points, or 0.30%, to 22,660.01
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 1.24 points, or 0.05% to 2,436.48

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for September…est. 50K (prior 54K)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for August…est. (-0.1%)
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for September…est. 49.0 (prior 48.7)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: None

• European Respiratory Society (ERS) Congress is taking place between 9/27-10/1

• Euro zone inflation accelerated last month on higher services prices and a smaller decline in energy costs, rising 2.2% in September from 2.0% in August, in line with expectations while a more closely watched core figure, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, meanwhile held steady at 2.3%.
• U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a two-month high on Monday with the start of a new, more expensive front-month, and as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants increases. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery rose 6.1 cents, or 1.9%, from where the November contract closed on Friday to settle at $3.267 per million British thermal units.

• Carvana (CVNA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and boosted the price target to $485 from $375 saying the results of its consumer survey, web scape, and capacity analysis suggest Carvana will continue to deliver elevated growth and upside to consensus estimates.
• Li Auto Inc. (LI) delivered 33,951 vehicles in September, ending a three-month slide with a 19% gain vs. August. But that was down 36.8% vs. a year earlier; For Q3, Li delivered 93,211, down 39% vs. a year earlier and 16.1% vs. a year earlier.
• Nio Inc. (NIO) delivered 34,749 vehicles in September 2025, reaching a new monthly record and representing an increase of 64.1% y/y; delivered 87,071 vehicles in Q3, reaching a new quarterly high and representing an increase of 40.8% y/y. Cumulative deliveries reached 872,785 as of September 30, 2025
• Target Corp. (TGT) shares rose late yesterday after a Fox Business Report mentioning the retail chain as a potential take-over target by a private equity firm.
• Tesla (TSLA) doesn’t report monthly China sales. Insurance registrations, a rough gauge for deliveries, jumped 26.9% vs. Q2 but fell 8.7% vs. a year earlier. Year-to-date insurance registrations are off 6.4%.
• XPENG (XPEV) delivered a record 41,581 Smart EVs, a 95% y/y increase and up 10% over the prior month, exceeding the 40,000 monthly deliveries milestone. For Q3, XPENG delivered 116,007 Smart EVs, a 149% y/y increase. Cumulative deliveries for the first nine months of 2025 reached 313,196 units, representing a 218% increase from the corresponding period in 2024.

• AES Corp. (AES) shares jumped after the Financial Times reported that BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners was nearing a $38 billion deal to buy the utility company. https://tinyurl.com/5n7tamdn
• PG&E Corp (PCG) said on Monday it plans to spend $73 billion by 2030 for transmission upgrades to meet the data center-led surge in electricity demand. The company had said in July it was working to serve 10 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity demand from data center projects over the next ten years.
• The U.S. government will take a stake in Lithium Americas (LAC) to support its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Bloomberg TV. Lithium Americas is also in talks with GM and DOE on a $2.3B federal loan.
• The U.S. Department of Energy said Tuesday it selected Oklo (OKLO), Terrestrial Energy, TRISO-X and Valar Atomics for its new pilot program to build advanced nuclear fuel lines.
• Shell (SHEL) CEO said at least five new or expanded liquefied natural gas export plants have received a green light for construction this year, and several more could be approved by year-end, but companies are building so many facilities.
• U.S. wheat and corn futures fell sharply Tuesday after the U.S.D.A quarterly report showed bigger than expected stockpiles. The USDA showed wheat and corn stocks came in higher than anticipated, with wheat stocks as of September 1 totaling 2.12 billion bushels and corn stocks at 1.53 billion bushels

• Allstate (ALL) was downgraded to In Line at Evercore ISI after outperformance
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) upgraded to In Line at Evercore ISI on valuation

• Hims & Hers (HIMS) reiterated Underperform and $28 tgt at Bank America saying, “based on observed sales data trends through August, we saw potential for Hims & Hers to beat 3Q Street estimates, but September sales trends through the first three weeks suggest this is less likely.”
• Zoetis (ZTS) receives conditional approval for Dectomax®-ca1 injectable for the prevention and treatment of new world screwworm myiasis in cattle.
• Global drugmakers are scrambling to shore up their U.S. manufacturing capacity and domestic inventory as the Trump administration moves ahead with a 100% tariff on imported branded and patented drugs, starting October 1. The sweeping measure has triggered a flurry of activity across the industry, including fast-tracking U.S. manufacturing projects, price cuts and direct-to-consumer sales.

• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix have signed letters of intent to supply memory chips for OpenAI’s data centers, they said on Wednesday, as South Korean chipmakers join forces with the ChatGPT maker to meet rising demand from its Stargate project.
• Fortnite maker Epic Games said that Apple’s (AAPL) new installation workflow, implemented in iOS 18.6, has had a positive impact on its user growth, with a 60% decrease in drop-offs.