Early Look

Friday, October 3, 2025

Government shutdown into Day 3 and U.S. stocks are making new highs, looking to add to the 5-day win streak and record levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stocks gained Thursday as evidence continued to point to a fragile but stable labor market following Wednesday’s ADP private payroll report and given the current shutdown of the government, the BLS said they do not intend to release today’s nonfarm payroll report (though we are expected to get ISM Services report, including the Employment PMI today). Overall Thursday, it was a pretty uneventful day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as the entire day was spent recovering from the morning drop before the S&P 500 Index (SPX) made it a record high for the 31st time this year. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 832 points to 45,769, the Shanghai Index was closed for Golden Week, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -146 points to 27,140. In Europe, the German DAX is up 30 points to 24,452, while the FTSE 100 is up 64 points to 9,492. Oil prices are higher, but tracking for their worst week since April, down over -7%, while the dollar (DXY) is heading for its worst week since July, and gold prices are on track for the 7^th straight weekly advance, holding near record highs at $3,900 an ounce. Regarding the shutdown, the US Senate is set to vote on the same competing government funding resolutions that on Tuesday fell short of the 60 votes required (in a 55-45 vote). Prediction markets meanwhile see the political standoff continuing to mid-month, with Kalshi currently showing a 14-day shutdown. President Trump’s pre-recorded interview with One America News Network aired after the NY close. He said the shutdown was likely to lead to mass layoffs and permanent cancellation of various projects.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 78.62 points, or 0.17%, to 46,519.72
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 88.89 points, or 0.39%, to 22,844.05
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 16.14 points, or 0.66% to 2,458.49

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for September…est. +61K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for September…est. (-7K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for September…est. 4.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for September…est. +0.3%
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Sept-Final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-Final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September…est. 51.7
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
  ***All subject the change – likely impacted due to the Government Shutdown

• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) reinforces focus on food and guest experience with leadership and organizational structure changes; also confirmed that it is ending its engagement with Prophet, the global strategic and creative growth consultancy that advised Cracker Barrel on its previous brand refresh initiatives.

• CACI International (CACI) announced that it has been awarded a five-year contract valued at more than $73M to continue its work modernizing the Department of the Air Force’s network.
• Entergy (ETR) Arkansas to power Google’s (GOOGL) $4B data center project with 600 megawatt solar and 350-megawatt battery storage system.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and raised tgt to $48 from $42.50 saying shares are over-discounting the company’s Grasberg challenges.
• Tronox (TROX) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, saying conditions in the titanium dioxide industry have become more difficult near term.
• USA Rare Earth (USAR) shares rise after a report that the mining company’s CEO Barbara Humpton said it was in close discussions with the White House. Humpton was addressing a question about the company’s potential interest in striking a deal with the Trump administration, in an interview with CNBC.
• Copper prices hit a 16-month high on Friday, poised for its strongest week in almost six months and on course for a weekly gain of 3.9% as supply constraints and a softer dollar boosted prices.

• Huawei Technologies Co. used advanced components from Asia’s largest technology firms in at least some of its leading Ascend AI processors. TechInsights discovered gear from Taiwan Semi (TSM), Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. in multiple samples of Huawei’s third generation Ascend 910C chips – Bloomberg.
• Nvidia’s (NVDA) multibillion-dollar deal to supply advanced AI chips to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been stalled for nearly five months, frustrating CEO Jensen Huang and some senior administration officials, the WSJ reported. Under the deal, which was announced in May, the U.A.E. promised to invest in the U.S. in exchange for up to several hundred thousand Nvidia chips a year. https://tinyurl.com/4u3xrw73
• Rumble (RUM) and Perplexity form strategic partnership; AI Tools to be integrated into Rumble. com, bundled subscription with Perplexity Pro to launch Rumble.