Early Look

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Another day, another record as FOMO and AI euphoria continue to grip markets, with major global stock markets setting new record highs on a daily basis. According to a Reuters analysis of Trade Alert data, For individual stocks, trading in call options, typically bought to express a bullish view, exceeds volume in puts, options that express bearish views, by the largest margin in about four years amid massive upside exuberance given the AI investment trade and anticipation of lower interest rates from the Fed amid a weaker jobs market. The markets continue to show no concern as the U.S. government shutdown is in Day 9, as the S&P 500 has risen 8 of the last 9 trading days, recording many new all-time highs along the stretch. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged again by 845 points or 1.77% to 48,580, the Shanghai Index reopened after a week-long Golden week holiday rising 51 points to 3,933 and the Hang Seng Index fell -76 points to 26,752. In Europe, the German DAX is up 87 points to 24,884, while the FTSE 100 is down -34 points to 9,514. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new records Wednesday after release of Fed minutes and another rebound in technology as investors continue to shrug off any concerns about the government shutdown (now in day 9). The Nasdaq Comp surged 1.12% on Wednesday, its best one-day move since early September amid a rebound in technology (after Tuesday’s modest sell-off) as the artificial-intelligence trade regained its footing (Nasdaq 100 up 44% in 6 months). Gold futures also hit record highs of $4,080 an ounce and silver prices soar.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped -1.20 points, or 0.01%, to 46,601.78
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 255.02 points, or 1.12%, to 23,043.38
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 25.57 points, or 1.04% to 2,483.99

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: APLD APOG EDUC LEVI ODC

• China tightened its rare earth export controls on Thursday, expanding restrictions on processing technology and spelling out its intention to limit exports to overseas defense and semiconductor users. The Ministry of Commerce’s announcement expands sweeping controls Beijing April that caused shortages around the world before a series of deals with Europe and the U.S. eased the supply crunch.
• Israelis and Palestinians rejoiced on Thursday after a ceasefire and hostage deal was announced under the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the deal, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. A source briefed on details of the agreement said Israeli troops would begin pulling back within 24 hours of the deal being signed

• Basset Furniture (BSET) Q3 EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.09 on revs $80.1Mm vs est. $79.91Mm, gr mgn 56.2%.
• Buckle Inc. (BKE) net sales increase 7.8% to $108.4 mln for 5-week period ended October 4 and said comparable store net sales increase 6.9% for 5-week period.
• Costco (COST) reported net sales of $26.58 billion for the retail month of September, the five weeks ended October 5, 2025, an increase of 8.0 percent from $24.62 billion last year. September comparable sales: U.S. 5.1%, Canada 6.3%, other int’l 8.5%; total company comparable sales were up 5.7%; digitally enabled comparable sales were up 26.1%
• Ferrari (RACE) presented at its capital markets day their 2030 strategic plan. An average of four new car launches per year planned between 2026 and 2030; raises FY25 EPS view to greater than EUR 8.80 from greater than EUR 8.60; raises FY25 revenue view to greater than EUR 7.1B from greater than EUR 7B; raises FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to greater than EUR 2.72B from greater than EUR 2.68B
• PepsiCo (PEP) Q3 core EPS $2.29 vs est. $2.26; Q3 organic revs +1.3%; Q3 net revs rose 2.7% y/y to $23.94B vs est. $23.83B; affirms 2025 financial guidance; now sees FX translation headwind of about 0.5 pct points to hit FY reported net rev, core EPS growth; said its top finance executive, Jamie Caulfield, will retire, effective Nov. 10.
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) was upgraded to Buy, raise PT to $62 at Citigroup as sees building comp store sales momentum and the model returning to normalized SSS/EPS growth in 2026 and said the recent pullback presents an attractive entry point.

• Civitas Resources Inc. (CIVI), an oil and gas explorer that has been weighing a sale, is considering a merger with Permian Basin rival SM Energy Co. (SM), according to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported – https://tinyurl.com/nhd32sa7
• Delta Airlines (DAL) Q3 adj EPS $1.71 vs. est. $1.52 and operating revs $15.2B vs. est. $15.05B; guides FY adj EPS outlook about $6.00 vs estimate $5.78; sees Q4 adj EPS $1.60-$1.90 vs estimates $1.66 and Q4 rev growth between 2% to 4% vs estimate 1.66% (AAL, LUV, UAL, ALK shares rise in reaction).
• LP Building Solutions (LPX) was upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America and upgraded Karat Packaging (KRT) to Buy from Neutral, while downgrading Sonoco (SON) and Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Neutral in the paper and packaging sector. Packaging and paper/forest stocks have come under renewed pressure, as the stocks have declined 15% relative to the market since June 30.
• Rare earth stocks (MP, CRML, TMQ, USAR) shares advance China tightened its rare earth export controls on Thursday, expanding restrictions on processing technology and spelling out its intention to limit exports to overseas defense and semiconductor users.
• U.S. imports of containerized goods in September fell 8.4% y/y, including a 22.9% drop in goods from China, amid ongoing trade disturbances from President Trump’s tariff policies, data released on Thursday showed. U.S. seaports handled 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container cargo last month, the third-highest September volume on record despite being a decline from last year.

• Resource Connections (RGP) Q1 adj EPS $0.03 vs est. ($0.10), adj EBITDA $3.1Mm vs est. $(1.498Mm) on revs $120.229Mm vs est. $119.95Mm, gr mgn 39.5%.

• Richardson Electronics (RELL) Q1 EPS $0.13 vs est. $0.02 on revs $54.607Mm vs est. $51.51Mm, gross margin 31%.
• The United States has approved several billion dollars’ worth of Nvidia (NVDA) chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, Bloomberg News reported. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security recently issued the Nvidia export licenses under the terms of a bilateral artificial intelligence agreement hashed out in May, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.