Early Look

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

U.S. futures reverse lower overnight after China hit back at the US with shipping curbs, placing limits on five US entities tied to one of South Korea’s biggest shipbuilders and threatened further retaliation. The retaliation comes after comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview in the Financial Times, said that China’s export controls on rare earths, three weeks before President Trump is due to meet China’s President Xi Jinping, only reflects how week Beijing’s economy is. Day 14 of the federal government shutdown today, while markets await comments from Fed Chairman Powell on the economy later this afternoon. U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday, rebounding from Friday’s selloff, after President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric around trade tensions with China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%, snapping a five-day losing streak, the S&P 500 finished up about 1.5% for its largest point and percentage gain since May 27 and the Nasdaq Composite surged +2.2% for its largest one-day point gain since May 12 and its largest one-day percentage gain since May 27. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index plunged -1,241 points or 2.58% to 46,847, the Shanghai Index slid -24 points to 3,865, and the Hang Seng Index declined -448 points to 25,441. In Europe, the German DAX is down -306 points or 1.25% to 24,081, while the FTSE 100 is down -38 points to 9,404. Gold and silver prices extend record gains, crypto prices tumble with Bitcoin -4% to $110K, Treasury yields fall to 4% for the 10-year and oil stumbles further below $60.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 587.98 points, or 1.29%, to 46,067.58
• The Nasdaq Composite spiked 490.18 points, or 2.21%, to 22,694.61
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 66.82 points, or 2.79% to 2,461.42

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 12:20 AM ET                Fed Chairman Powell speaks on economy
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: EQBK HWC KARO

• Deutsche Bank 33rd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 10/13-10/15, in Austin, Texas
• Goldman Sachs Global Metals and Mining Conference, 10/14-10/15, in London
• Needham 5th Annual Needham Private Biotech and MedTech Virtual 1×1 Forum, 10/14-10/15 (virtual)
• Oracle AI World 2025 user conference, 10/13-10/16
• China PPI, CPI for September

• General Motors (GM) said its board approved charges of $1.6 billion in the September quarter for a realignment of its electric-vehicle capacity and manufacturing operations.
• Polaris (PII) to separate Indian motorcycle into a standalone company, will sell majority stake to Carolwood LP; says sale expected to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA margins and adjusted EPS; says 900 employees to transition to new Indian motorcycle company.

• Cenovus Energy (CVE) has acquired 21.7m shares, or 8.5% of MEG Energy (MEGEF) through the Facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange or other Canadian Alternative Exchanges or markets.
• Rayonier (RYN) and PotlatchDeltic (PCH) said they will merge in an all-stock deal valued at about $8.2 billion, including debt, to create one of North America’s largest publicly traded timber and wood products companies. The combined company will own about 4.2M acres of timberland across 11 U.S. states and operate seven wood manufacturing plants. RYN holders to own 54% of co and PCH holders 46%.
• Silver prices hit a record high on Tuesday, topping $53 per ounce now up 85% YTD as a scramble for the precious metal in London injected fresh momentum into a rally that has already outpaced that of gold.
• Rare earth stocks (CRML, METC, MP, TMC, UAMY, USAR) extend gains on rising China/US trade tensions. Since September, Chinese rare earth magnet companies have been facing more scrutiny on its export license applications, Reuters reports.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted world oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish. The latest outlook expands its prediction of a 2026 surplus from about 3.3 million bpd last month.

• JPMorgan (JPM) Q3 EPS $5.07 vs. est. $4.87; Profit at the largest U.S. bank climbed to $14.39B; Q3 reported revenue $46.4B and managed revenue $47.1B, vs. consensus $45.57B; Q3 equities sales & trading rev $3.33B, vs. est. $3.04B; Q3 FICC sales & trading revs $5.61B, vs. est. $5.33B; sees FY25 net interest income ~$95.8B vs. prior view ~$95.5B.
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 EPS $1.66 vs. est. $1.53; Q3 revs $21.44B vs. est. $21.16B; Q3 Net Interest Income $11.95B vs. est. $12.01B; Q3 Total Avg Deposits $1.34T and sees Q4 NII ~$12.4B-$12.5B.
• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks slide amid a drop in Bitcoin prices, falling -4.5% to $110,550 following a flare-up in trade tensions between the US and China. Watch shares of COIN, CLSK, BMNR, CRCL, HUT, IREN, MARA, MSTR, RIOT, etc.

• Ericsson (ERIC) shares rise after reports Q3 EPS SEK 3.33 vs. SEK 1.14 last year and reported Q3 revenue SEK 56.24B vs. SEK 61.79B last year. Cloud Software and Services sales grew 9%, driven by strong growth in core networks; said expect enterprise organic sales to stabilize in Q4 and RAN market to remain broadly stable.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) said it expects its biggest quarterly profit in over three years, as the global race to boost production of AI chips has tightened supply and driven up prices; the company estimated an operating profit of 12.1 trillion won ($8.5 billion) for the July-September period, up 32% from a year earlier and well above a 10.1 trillion won estimate.
• T-Mobile (TMUS) upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital, as the firm expects the telecom operator to see stronger subscriber growth versus wireless peers in the short term.