Early Look

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Stock futures are little changed following weaker stock prices on Wednesday, as markets dropped on reports the Trump administration is considering restricting globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software. The Nasdaq 100 underperformed, falling ~1%, while the VIX Index surged to 21 before dropping back below 19. Treasuries posted small gains on Thursday following a well-received 20-year sale that kept the bull trend intact ahead of CPI data on Friday morning (but yields edge higher this morning). Crude oil rallied and gold pared losses Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US plans to announce a substantial increase in sanctions related to Russia. Oil prices extended gains overnight, rising +5.5% or $3.25 to $61.75 per barrel after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. The day was red for several sectors as investors extended their recent unwind of some of the biggest and most momentum upside driven sectors this year, with notable declines this week in nuclear utilities (OKLO, SMR, LEU, NNE), rare earth stocks (MP, CRML, METC, USAR) , quantum compute stocks (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI), AI data center plays (NBIS, VRT, CRWV) and power plays (PWR, MTZ, GEV). Quantum names, however, are getting a boost this morning on a WSJ article saying come companies are discussing the government becoming a shareholder as part of agreements to get funding earmarked for promising technology. Few notable earnings overnight as Tesla (TSLA) reported Q3 EPS that missed estimates as margins pressures mount, IBM shares fell as top/bottom line beat and strong AI book, but cloud sales decelerated q/q; SAP shares dipped on revs miss; in managed care, MOH tumbled on miss and lower guidance; in casinos LVS shares rallied on results as did LRCX in semi equipment sector. Markets prepare for another busy day of large cap earnings today as well. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -666 points off record highs to 48,641, the Shanghai Index rose 8 points to 3,922, and the Hang Seng Index gained 186 points to 25,967. In Europe, the German DAX is down -93 points to 24,057, while the FTSE 100 is up 50 points to 9,565. As we are entering the end of October and into one of the seasonally best months of the year with November, note that the Russell 2000 (IWM) is up 6 months in a row, the Dow (DIA) up 6 months in a row, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) up 7 months in a row and the S&P (SPY) up 6 months in a row.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -334.33 points, or 0.71%, to 46,590.41
• The Nasdaq Composite sunk -213.27 points, or 0.93%, to 22,740.40
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -36.14 points, or 1.45% to 2,451.55

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for October

• Earnings After the Close: ALK ASB BKR BY BYD COUR CUBI CYH DECK DLR DOC EBC EGP ENVA F FFBC INTC KN KNSL MCB MGRC MHK MRTN MTX MXL NEM NSC NXT PECO SLM SSNC ULH UVE VRSN WKC WSFS WU

• Of the 112 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far this earnings season, nearly 85% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while less than 14% have missed – Bloomberg
• Trade tensions are also never far away. China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of talks. The Trump administration is weighing export restrictions against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software, a White House official said Wednesday.

• Century Communities (CCS) Q3 adj EPS $1.52 vs est $0.79 on revs $980.3Mm vs est $908.6Mm, adj homebuilding gr mgn 20.1%; sees FY home sales revs $3.8-3.9B; sees FY home delivery 10,000-10,250.
• Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q3 adj EPS $1.09 vs est $0.98 on revs $683Mm vs est $671.2Mm
• Cracker Barrel’s (CBRL) CEO said the company’s new logo redesign was meant purely to improve highway visibility and has nothing to do with any ideological or cultural shift.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Q3 adj EPS $0.78 vs est $0.60 on revs $3.331B vs est $3.043B; adds $2B to stock repurchase authorization; raising annual dividend to $1.20 per share.
• O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q3 EPS $0.85 vs est $0.83 on revs $4.71B vs est $4.689B, comps +5.6%; sees FY net new stores +200-210, comps +4-5% and EPS $2.90-3.00 above prior $2.85-$2.95 and vs est $2.95.
• QuantumScape Corp. (QS) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.18) vs. est. loss (-$0.20); Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss was -$61.4M in Q3, in line with expectations; announced that it has begun shipping B1 samples of its QSE-5 cell as they reached this milestone during the third quarter of 2025.
• Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q3 adj EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.01; Q3 revs $6.95B vs. est. $6.93B; sees Q4 unit revenues to be in the range of up 1%-3% , compared with fourth quarter 2024-unit revenues, excluding special items, on capacity up approximately 6% y/y; sees Q4 ASMs up 6% y/y, RASM up 1%-3%, CASM-x up 1.5%-2.5% and guides Q4 capital spending $2.5B-$3B.
• Wyndham Hotels (WH) Q3 adj EPS $1.46 vs. est. $1.44; Q3 revs $382M vs. consensus $401.9M; Q3 global RevPAR decreased 5% in constant currency compared to 2024, reflecting declines of 5% in the U.S. and 2% internationally; In the U.S., RevPAR performance reflected a 300 basis-point reduction in occupancy and a 200 basis-point decline in ADR

• Kinder Morgan (KMI) Q3 adj EPS $0.29 vs est $0.29 on revs $4.146B vs est $4.063B; guides FY adj EPS $1.27 vs est $1.29
• TechnipFMC (FTI) authorizes additional share repurchases of up to $2B.

• Globe Life (GL) Q3 adj EPS $4.81 vs est $4.54 on revs $1.51B vs est $1.519B; guides FY adj EPS $14.40-14.60 vs est $14.40; sees FY26 $14.60-15.30 vs est $15.00.
• Lending Club (LC) Q3 EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.31; Q3 net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 6.18%, compared to 5.63% y/y; Q3 tangible book value per common share grew to $11.95, vs. $11.19 y/y; Q3 common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 18.0% vs. 17.5% q/q; said Q3 37% growth in originations and 32% growth in revenue; signs up to $1B memorandum of understanding with BlackRock.
• Raymond James Financial (RJF) Q4 adj EPS $3.11 vs. est. $2.70; Q4 revs $3.73B vs. est. $3.64B; posted Record client assets under administration of $1.73 trillion and record Private Client Group assets in fee-based accounts of $1.01 trillion, up 10% and 15%, respectively.
• Robert Half (RHI) Q3 EPS $0.43 on revs $1.35B, both in line with consensus; says Q4 revenue guidance, at and above the midpoint, reflects a return to sequential growth on a same-day constant currency basis for the first time since Q2 of 2022
• SEI Investments (SEIC) Q3 EPS was $1.30, topping estimate of $1.25; Q3 revs $578.5M vs. est. $578.8M; Ending assets under administration increased by 7%, and ending AUM increased by 5% from Q2 to Q3.
• SouthState Bancorp. (SSB) Q3 adj EPS $2.58 vs est $2.20 on NII $600Mm vs est $570.43Mm, revs $698.783Mm vs est $660.24Mm.
• Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Q3 EPS $2.18 vs. est. $1.77; Q3 tangible book value per share $73.02; Q3 CET1 capital ratio 12.1%; Q3 net charge-offs 0.23%; Q3 net interest income $271.77M; Q3 provision for credit loss $12M.
• United Rentals (URI) Q3 adj EPS $11.70 vs est $12.30 on revs $4.229B vs est $4.158B; guides FY revs $16.0-16.2B vs est $16.04B and adj EBITDA $7.32-7.42B vs est $7.33B.

• Molina Healthcare (MOH) shares tumble; Q3 adj EPS $1.84 vs est $3.90 on premium revs $10.841B vs. est. $10.97B; Q3 medical cost ratio for the quarter was 92.6%, compared with expectations of 90.6%; guides FY revs +10% vs est +9.2%, sees FY premium revs $42.5B; sees FY adj EPS $14.00 vs est $18.65.
• Ventyx (VTYX) said its oral drug VTX3232 cut key inflammation markers tied to heart disease in patients with obesity and cardiovascular risk; said its drug lowered hsCRP by about 80% in the first week; levels of IL-6, a protein linked to heart risk, also dropped below the threshold for cardiovascular risk.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.81) vs est (-$0.68) on op Inc (-$98.56M) vs est (-$85.8M); PH3 VANQUISH-1 enrollment completion this quarter; PH3 VANQUISH-2 enrollment completion 1st qtr 2026; Meeting with FDA this quarter for next steps with oral VK2735.

• CACI International (CACI) Q1 adj EPS $6.85 vs est $6.16 on revs $2.288B vs est $2.255B; guides FY revs $9.2-9.4B vs est $9.341B and adj EPS $27.13-28.03 vs est $27.95.
• Dow Inc. (DOW) Q3 operating EPS loss (-$0.19) vs. est. loss (-$0.30); Q3 revenue $9.97B vs. consensus $10.23B; Company achieved sequential EBIT growth through cost reductions and operational improvements; said aims to deliver over $6.5 bln in near-term cash support.
• Hexcel Corp. (HXL) Q3 adj EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.38; Q3 revs $456M vs. est. $447.91M; said experienced seasonally slower Q3 sales combined with the expected commercial aerospace destocking, particularly with the Airbus A350.; said expect to be at the bottom end of our 2025 sales guidance and cuts FY25 EPS view to $1.70-$1.80 from $1.85-$2.05, vs. consensus $1.84.
• Honeywell (HON) Q3 adj EPS $2.82 vs. est. $2.57; Q3 revs $10.41B vs. consensus $10.16B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $10.60-$10.70 from $10.45-$10.65, while cuts FY25 revenue view to $40.7B-$40.9B from $40.8B-$41.3B (est. $40.88B) and cuts FY25 free cash flow view to $5.2B-$5.6B from $5.5B-$5.8B.
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Q3 net sales $844M missed analyst expectations $850M while adjusted net income for Q3 beats analyst expectations and raises full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to improve 20% to 25% year-over-year while expects 2025 Conversion Revenue to be flat to up 5% y/y.
• Knight Swift (KNX) Q3 adj EPS $0.32 vs est $0.37 on sales $1.927B vs est $1.899B; guides Q4 adj EPS $0.34-$0.40 vs. est. $0.40.
• Packaging Corp. (PKG) Q3 adj EPS $2.73 vs. est. $2.84; Q3 sales $2.31B vs. est. $2.275B.
• Reliance (RS) Q3 EPS $3.64 vs. est. $3.73; Q3 revs $3.65B vs. est. $3.54B; said tons sold were a Q3 record and outperformed the industry by approximately nine percentage points, increasing our U.S. market share to 17.1%, up from 14.5% in 2023; sees Q4 EPS $2.65-$2.85 vs. consensus $3.36; anticipates demand in Q4 will remain generally stable across the diversified end markets it serves.
• West Fraser (WFG) Q3 sales of $1.307B vs. est. $1.38B; Q3 adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was negative, reflecting market challenges; targets 2025 SPF shipments of 2.6 to 2.7 bln board feet; expect 2025 OSB shipments of 6.3 to 6.5 bln square feet in North America.

• IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) are discussing the government becoming a shareholder as part of agreements to get funding earmarked for promising technology companies, according to people familiar with the matter – WSJ reports https://tinyurl.com/yeyjtpd4
• Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 adj EPS $1.26 vs est $1.22 on revs $5.324Mm vs est $5.232Mm, adj gr mgn 50.6%; guides Q2 adj revs $4.9-5.5B vs est $4.811B and adj EPS $1.05-1.25 vs est $1.18.
• SAP AG (SAP) reported a 12% rise in Q3, boosted by strong cloud demand; Q3 adj Ebit EU2.56B vs. est. EU2.57B; Q3 EPS EU1.59 vs. est. EU1.49, up 37% y/y while revs rose +7% to EU9.07B vs. est. EU9.1B; Cloud computing subscription and support rose 27% to 5.29B euros (about $6.14B) vs. est. 5.328B euros.
• Crown Castle (CCI) Q3 AFFO/shr $1.12 vs est $1.02 on site rental revs $1.012B vs est $1.055B; guides FY AFFO/shr $4.29 vs est $4.19.