Early Look

Monday, October 27, 2025

More record highs are in store for U.S. markets after progress was made by US and Chinese trade negotiators this weekend, with a framework in place ahead to provide a basis for the upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Last week stocks closed at record highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.92%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.31%, and the Dow climbed 2.2%, surging Friday behind a cooler than expected CPI inflation report and as investors remain exuberant ahead of this week’s FOMC policy meeting where another 25bps cut is widely expected Wednesday. Helping sentiment this weekend, signs of thawing trade tensions with China ahead of the potential November 1^st 155% tariff on China after Secretary Treasury Bessent said this weekend that Beijing will make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, in a sign that the relations are improving ahead of an expected meeting between President Trump and China leader Xi this week. US and Chinese negotiators said they’d reached agreements on issues spanning tariffs, shipping fees, fentanyl and export controls. Next up, the busiest week for S&P 500 earnings with 38% of components reporting this week including large cap tech AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT and other large cap names BA, CAT, JNJ, UNH, MRK, CVX, UPS, SBUX and LLY. Bitcoin prices rise 1.75% to $115,350, more than $7,000 off last week lows as crypto assets rebound with broader risk assets. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,212 points or 2.46% to 50,512, first time above 50K, while the Shanghai Index jumps 46 points to 3,996, and the Hang Seng Index climbs 273 points to 26,433. In Europe, the German DAX is up 26 points to 24,266, while the FTSE 100 is down -5 points to 9,640.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 472.51 points, or 1.01%, to 47,207.12
• The Nasdaq Composite spiked 263.07 points, or 1.15%, to 23,204.87
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 30.82 points, or 1.24% to 2,513.47

• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Ex: Transports for September
• 10:30 AM ET                Dallas Fed manufacturing Activity for October
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABCB ACGL AGYS AMKR ARE BBBY BRO BRX CAR CDNS CFLT CINF CR CTOS DORM EFSC FFIV FTAI HIG KRC LEG NBTB NE NOV NTST NWBI NXPI OLN PDM PFG RMBS SBCF SSD TWO UHS WELL WHR WM

• U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would be increasing the tariff rate on Canadian goods by another 10% after the country drew his anger by airing an ad featuring former President Ronald Reagan talking negatively about tariffs. The tariff rate against Canada is currently at 35%. Trump’s move follows a Friday declaration that he was immediately ending all trade negotiations with Canada.
• In Argentina, stocks market soar after Milei scores historic win in Argentina midterms, tightens grip on Congress. The Libertarian President’s party wins 41.5% in Buenos Aires province, increasing lower house seats from 37 to 64.
• In Europe, German business confidence hit the highest since 2022, while French markets are digesting Moody’s turning negative on its debt.

• Carter’s (CRI) Q3 adj EPS $0.74, in-line with consensus on revs $758M vs. est. $773.09M; lans to reduce its offices-based roles by approximately 300 positions, or 15%, by the end of 2025; said additional tariffs have begun to add substantially to the approximately $110M in duties on imported product paid by them.
• Harley-Davidson (HOG) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Q3 adj EPS $0.54 in line with consensus and revenue $4.31B vs. est. $4.16B; now expects fiscal 2025 constant currency net sales growth in a high-single-digit range vs a mid-single-digit growth outlook previously.
• The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is expanding its probe into 286,000 GM (GM) vehicles in the U.S. over a possible engine failure issue, the safety regulator said on Monday.
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raise tgt to $32 from $18 saying the company is under new management and implemented several initiatives under its “Path to Potential” strategy, which have driven stronger brand relevance and consumer engagement with both the Victoria’s Secret and PINK banners.

• Boeing (BA) workers at three Midwest plants where military aircraft and weapons are developed voted Sunday to reject the company’s latest contract offer and to continue a strike that started almost three months ago. The strike includes about 3,200 machinists at the plants.
• Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) announced amendments to its acquisition agreement with MEG Energy Corp (MEGFF) and secured voting support from Strathcona Resources Ltd. Under the revised terms, MEG shareholders can elect to receive either $30.00 in cash or 1.255 Cenovus common shares per MEG share. The deal includes a maximum of $3.8B in cash and 159.6M Cenovus shares.
• Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) shares active after President Donald Trump has signed a proclamation granting an exemption for US copper smelters, including Freeport-McMoRan, from certain emissions standards dubbed the “Copper Rule,” according to a White House statement.
• Honeywell (HON) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital and raise tgt to $253 saying the company’s solid Q3 brings start of Honeywell’s breakup catalyst-rich phase.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) would need about $1.7 billion in funding to implement a floating storage strategy it proposed as an alternative to marketing crude from the Santa Ynez field off California by pipeline, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) informed the Mozambican government that the cost of its long-delayed liquefied natural gas project has risen by about $4.5 billion, and the company is requesting a 10-year extension to its production agreement, Reuters reported Sunday.

• Progressive Corp. (PGR) mentioned positively in Barron’s noting the stock has tumbled more than 20% from its April peak amid slow growth and pressure on auto-insurance pricing, but the selloff overlooks the company’s long-term strength as one of America’s most profitable and technologically advanced insurers.

• Novartis (NVS) said it will acquire Avidity Biosciences (RNA) in a $12 billion all-cash transaction, as shareholders will receive $72 a share in cash, a 46% premium to Friday’s closing price, strengthening its portfolio of treatments for rare muscle disorders.

• SoftBank’s (SFTBY) board of directors has approved a second installment of $22.5B, completing its $30B investment in OpenAI, Reuters reports, citing the Information.